Katrina
Last year, when Hurricane Ivan came through the Gulf region, most experts agreed that the absolute worst-case scenario would be if Ivan were to hit New Orleans. An estimate I heard, which was about the same as most others, was that 15,000 people would be killed in a direct hit. Well, Ivan ended up going through the Florida panhandle. Katrina, however, followed the path that had so worried experts and officials.
The reason New Orleans is so vulnerable is not only because of its density - the real problem is that most of the city is below sea level. The only thing keeping the city dry is a complex network of levees and pumps that keep out the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Pontchartrain. This works well when the weather is fine, and even in minor hurricanes (the system was designed to withstand up to a Catergory 3 storm), but it was not prepared to handle this.
Katrina was a very odd storm. When I left for college, it was a weak Catergory 1 that struggled its way across Florida and made its way into the Gulf of Mexico. Here, it managed to gather enough strength to become a Catergory 5 storm, the highest on the scale, with sustained winds above 155 mph. Furthermore, it developed the ability to put out a tremendous amount of rain. Some areas reported more than two feet of rain. The combination of these two forces, along with the track of the storm, worried New Orleans officials enough that they issued a mandatory evacuation order for the entire city.
Estimates are that around 80% of the city's population left the city in time. The remaining 20%, authorities asserted, refused to believe such an apocalyptic event would ever happen in their lifetime, and so felt no need to leave.
As was bound to happen, the levees broke. One was breached, and it widened to over 300 feet. As water poured into the city, rising to 20 feet in some areas, other levees also broke from the enormous external pressure. Buildings collapsed under the weight of the massive winds and the water inundating their foundations. Even the Superdome, which was intended as a shelter, had a section of it's roof ripped away. The most deadly aspect, though, was the floodwaters. Witnesses reported that the water rose so fast they could see it changing. With little warning and no hope of escape, many people drowned in their own homes.
The estimated number of deaths has not even been made officially. The mayor of New Orleans said that "thousands" were probably dead, and numerous reports were coming through of bodies floating in the water. The tremendous number of corpses pose a serious health risk, since cholera and typhoid, among others, spread quickly from corpse to corpse and to the living.
An initial estimate of the economic cost of the hurricane was $16 billion, but that was the day after the storm had passed through and I have not seen any since. I would be very surprised if it was less than $50 billion. Andrew, previously the most costly hurricane in American history, caused around $25 billion of damage. But that storm hit the suburban sprawl of southern Florida, not the densely packed city of New Orleans. The city is so damaged that it will take years to fully repair.
Even though the storm is long gone, the danger is still very present. Aside from the disease mentioned earlier, there are other problems. New Orelans was a major oil refinery city, both importing and refining crude oil. Fires have been reported over in the industrial district, and the water is very likely contaminated with the pollution of the destroyed plants. The two main bridges into the city have been destroyed, and the city is wholly without power, water, food, or gas. Looting, however, is the most disturbing aspect of the aftermath. Ambulances have been attacked, generators have been stolen from hospitals, stores have been looted, and, from the looks of one video, National Guard armories have been raided and armed gangs wander the streets. The videos I saw looked more like Mogadishu than the southern United States. I would address the looting further, but I would like to save it for later, as part of a larger philosophical discussion on the human character.
Besides the tremendous loss of life, which will make every previous disaster in the United States this century appear mild by comparison, and the tremendous property destruction, there is a longer lasting effect on the entire country. Because the Gulf is a large contributor to daily American oil production, and New Orleans a major refining and shipping center, oil prices are surging and will continue to do so. Energy analysts have been warning for years that any major event that disrupts the oil supplies, whether revolution in Saudi Arabia, war in Nigeria, or a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, would break the delicate supply/demand dance that the world has been doing for the past decade. Though OPEC has offered to increase oil production and President Bush (watch for his approval rating to soar, no matter what he does - Americans are idiots) has opened the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to domestic usage, both these sources only offer more crude - and the economy does not run on crude. New Orleans provided 10% of the American refining capacity, and that will be offline for at least six months. Prices will surge, especially in the United States, probably to $5 a gallon in such high consumption areas as California and settle around $4 for the nation until supplies can be returned to normal. Such a massive spike in gas prices will have two effects on the economy:
1) The increased cost of transportation will increase the price of goods across the board. Look for inflation rates above 7% annually next year, at least.
2) Consumer spending will drop precipitously, between the increased gas prices and higher inflationary prices. Some analysts predict that the GDP growth will drop to zero once the full effect of the storm is felt. A healthy rate, and one that we have more or less been seeing over the past few years, is 3%.
Overall, the storm is the catastrophe that we have been overdue for. And the hurricane season has not yet even peaked. If another storm heads through New Orleans again this year, it will force a serious consideration of whether it is wise to build large cities below sea level in a hurricane-prone region.
The reason New Orleans is so vulnerable is not only because of its density - the real problem is that most of the city is below sea level. The only thing keeping the city dry is a complex network of levees and pumps that keep out the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Pontchartrain. This works well when the weather is fine, and even in minor hurricanes (the system was designed to withstand up to a Catergory 3 storm), but it was not prepared to handle this.
Katrina was a very odd storm. When I left for college, it was a weak Catergory 1 that struggled its way across Florida and made its way into the Gulf of Mexico. Here, it managed to gather enough strength to become a Catergory 5 storm, the highest on the scale, with sustained winds above 155 mph. Furthermore, it developed the ability to put out a tremendous amount of rain. Some areas reported more than two feet of rain. The combination of these two forces, along with the track of the storm, worried New Orleans officials enough that they issued a mandatory evacuation order for the entire city.
Estimates are that around 80% of the city's population left the city in time. The remaining 20%, authorities asserted, refused to believe such an apocalyptic event would ever happen in their lifetime, and so felt no need to leave.
As was bound to happen, the levees broke. One was breached, and it widened to over 300 feet. As water poured into the city, rising to 20 feet in some areas, other levees also broke from the enormous external pressure. Buildings collapsed under the weight of the massive winds and the water inundating their foundations. Even the Superdome, which was intended as a shelter, had a section of it's roof ripped away. The most deadly aspect, though, was the floodwaters. Witnesses reported that the water rose so fast they could see it changing. With little warning and no hope of escape, many people drowned in their own homes.
The estimated number of deaths has not even been made officially. The mayor of New Orleans said that "thousands" were probably dead, and numerous reports were coming through of bodies floating in the water. The tremendous number of corpses pose a serious health risk, since cholera and typhoid, among others, spread quickly from corpse to corpse and to the living.
An initial estimate of the economic cost of the hurricane was $16 billion, but that was the day after the storm had passed through and I have not seen any since. I would be very surprised if it was less than $50 billion. Andrew, previously the most costly hurricane in American history, caused around $25 billion of damage. But that storm hit the suburban sprawl of southern Florida, not the densely packed city of New Orleans. The city is so damaged that it will take years to fully repair.
Even though the storm is long gone, the danger is still very present. Aside from the disease mentioned earlier, there are other problems. New Orelans was a major oil refinery city, both importing and refining crude oil. Fires have been reported over in the industrial district, and the water is very likely contaminated with the pollution of the destroyed plants. The two main bridges into the city have been destroyed, and the city is wholly without power, water, food, or gas. Looting, however, is the most disturbing aspect of the aftermath. Ambulances have been attacked, generators have been stolen from hospitals, stores have been looted, and, from the looks of one video, National Guard armories have been raided and armed gangs wander the streets. The videos I saw looked more like Mogadishu than the southern United States. I would address the looting further, but I would like to save it for later, as part of a larger philosophical discussion on the human character.
Besides the tremendous loss of life, which will make every previous disaster in the United States this century appear mild by comparison, and the tremendous property destruction, there is a longer lasting effect on the entire country. Because the Gulf is a large contributor to daily American oil production, and New Orleans a major refining and shipping center, oil prices are surging and will continue to do so. Energy analysts have been warning for years that any major event that disrupts the oil supplies, whether revolution in Saudi Arabia, war in Nigeria, or a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, would break the delicate supply/demand dance that the world has been doing for the past decade. Though OPEC has offered to increase oil production and President Bush (watch for his approval rating to soar, no matter what he does - Americans are idiots) has opened the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to domestic usage, both these sources only offer more crude - and the economy does not run on crude. New Orleans provided 10% of the American refining capacity, and that will be offline for at least six months. Prices will surge, especially in the United States, probably to $5 a gallon in such high consumption areas as California and settle around $4 for the nation until supplies can be returned to normal. Such a massive spike in gas prices will have two effects on the economy:
1) The increased cost of transportation will increase the price of goods across the board. Look for inflation rates above 7% annually next year, at least.
2) Consumer spending will drop precipitously, between the increased gas prices and higher inflationary prices. Some analysts predict that the GDP growth will drop to zero once the full effect of the storm is felt. A healthy rate, and one that we have more or less been seeing over the past few years, is 3%.
Overall, the storm is the catastrophe that we have been overdue for. And the hurricane season has not yet even peaked. If another storm heads through New Orleans again this year, it will force a serious consideration of whether it is wise to build large cities below sea level in a hurricane-prone region.
posted by Jimmy at 11:33 PM
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